Members of Parliament gather for a group photo in the temporary House of Commons in the West Block of Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Members of Parliament gather for a group photo in the temporary House of Commons in the West Block of Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

What’s at stake for the main political parties as an election looms in 2021

Here’s a look at some of the factors at play that could shape how or when that election is called

For all the bluster among federal political leaders about not wanting an election any time soon, the political truth is as cold as a winter’s wind: the potential for one is a reality in 2021.

For now, political parties say getting through the long dark winter without the health-care system collapsing due to COVID-19 is a priority, as is ensuring vaccines quickly and effectively reach all parts of the country.

But running parallel to that is the ongoing debate over how to cushion the economic blow caused by the pandemic.

Who has the best ideas on that score and ought to be entrusted with running the country as Canada builds itself back up is expected to be the dominant ballot box question come the next election.

Here’s a look at some of the factors at play that could shape how or when that election is called.

The Liberals

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laid out the broad strokes of his vision for Canada in the fall throne speech and subsequent economic update. He’ll return to it again in the 2021 budget.

But with a minority government, his desire to “build back better” rests on continuing to get support from other parties for any legislation he seeks to advance.

That the Liberals have survived thus far is largely thanks to the New Democrats who have propped up the government in several confidence votes.

Should Trudeau want to go to the polls to seek a majority mandate — a decision he may make based on public polling suggesting one is possible — he may have to slip a poison pill for the NDP into a confidence motion to ensure they vote him down.

Meanwhile, on their right flank the Liberals will seek any opportunity to jump on comments from Conservative MPs or their leader, Erin O’Toole, that could allow the party to be painted as extremely right wing.

A recent fundraising email to that effect using some of O’Toole’s own comments helped the Liberals hit one of their strongest weeks of online fundraising since the 2019 campaign.

The Conservatives

The goal for the Conservatives in the next election is to form government.

Their path to victory revolves around making the case the Liberals are unfit to manage the post-pandemic recovery, and 2021 will see the Tories roll out their ideas and arguments for why their approach would be better.

Newly minted leader Erin O’Toole — he won the job in August — must become better known to Canadians; while Trudeau spent the lead-up to Christmas doing year-end interviews with major national media outlets, O’Toole’s approach was to avoid most and focus on regional players.

Expanding the party’s reach beyond its loyal and committed base is the primary challenge for O’Toole.

Doing so requires a delicate dance between ensuring card-carrying members of the party see their demands met and not alienating potential voters.

Those two goals may come to a head at the party’s upcoming virtual convention.

What motions O’Toole supports or ignores there will signal which direction he wants to take the party, especially with groups like the anti-abortion Campaign Life Coalition mobilizing to advance its causes on the convention floor.

The New Democrats

The Liberals have hoovered up NDP ideas like Santa eating cookies on Christmas Eve: pharmacare, paid sick days and the cancellation of interest on student loans are now part of the policy package for the government.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said the government must act on those promises to ensure his party’s ongoing support, but they also have other demands, like increased taxes on the “ultrarich.”

The NDP secured concessions from the Liberals in pandemic-response legislation, but a decision to prop them up in a vote over WE Charity raised some eyebrows.

Taking the ethical high ground is a central talking point for the party and painting the Liberals as corrupt friends of the rich is core to the their political strategy.

Singh says he is guided by doing what’s best for Canadians, but how much runaway he has within his own party to keep propping up the government is unclear.

Also of note: in 2021, the party retires its $10 million debt from the 2019 election, allowing the NDP to focus on refilling its coffers for the next run.

The Bloc Quebecois

While their opponents are in the game to win the country, for the Bloc Quebecois, a minority government where they hold a significant chunk of seats is actually a better outcome as it allows them to wield more power than they would in a majority.

The pandemic has put federal-provincial relations under exceptional strain and this is fertile ground for the Bloc Quebecois to till as they position themselves as the only party truly committed to Quebec’s interests in Parliament.

At a recent year-end press conference, Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet accused the Liberals of using the pandemic to seize and centralize power without a care for the provinces.

He also checked off a list of causes dear to Quebec that his party fought for in 2020, including compensation for supply-managed industries and action to force airlines to refund customers who couldn’t travel during the pandemic.

Expect the Bloc to also press back hard against the Liberals’ plan to institute some kind of national strategy to guide long-term care homes, which Quebec has said is beyond the scope of federal power.

The BQ’s main political rival come 2021 is the Conservative party, which continues to insist it is the best placed to achieve actual change for Quebec. Much like the Liberals, expect the Bloc to focus on knocking down Erin O’Toole where they can.

The Green party:

The Greens have appeared poised for an electoral breakthrough for years as Canadians demand more aggressive action on climate change, but it has been a slog to convert national support in the polls to winning seats.

They currently hold three, and but despite best efforts so far, new Green Leader Annamie Paul doesn’t have one.

Increasing her profile is crucial in the coming months, but challenging without a seat in Parliament.

She’s been working the media circuit and holding regular news conferences, but an election would give her a much-needed boost, especially if she is afforded a seat at nationally televised debates.

The Liberals’ goal to focus on a “green recovery” post-pandemic could see the Greens own approach get renewed attention.

Stephanie Levitz, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism during the pandemic? Make a donation here.

federal election

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

School District 27 (SD27) issued notice Thursday, Feb. 25 of a COVID-19 exposure at Mountview Elementary School. (Angie Mindus photo)
School district reports positive COVID-19 case in Williams Lake elementary school

A letter went home to families of Mountview Elementary School

The City of Williams Lake is asking for public feedback on whether it should explore the opportunity to host a Greater Metro Hockey League team in Williams Lake. (Angie Mindus photo - Williams Lake Tribune)
City of Williams Lake seeks feedback on hosting junior hockey league team

A league expansion application in Quesnel is also pending

A rainbow shining on Kelowna General Hospital on May 12, 2020 International Nurses Day. (Steve Wensley - Prime Light Media)
New COVID cases trending down in Interior Health

24 new cases reported Thursday, Feb. 25, death at Kelowna General Hospital

LADDER USED IN FIRE FIGHT: While smoke billows out of the second floor of the Maple Leaf Hotel, members of the Williams Lake Volunteer Fire Department fight to contain the blaze. The department was called out Tuesday morning to battle the blaze that wreaked havoc on the interior of the 57-year-old hotel. One man, Harold Hurst of Riske Creek, died in the fire. (Ernest Engemoen photo - Williams Lake Tribune, April 12, 1977)
FROM OUR ARCHIVES: Ladder used in fire fight

The department was called out Tuesday morning to battle the blaze

Provincial funding in the amount of $300,000 has been announced for the Cariboo Regional District’s plans to improve the Anahim Lake Airport runway. (CRD photo)
$300,000 provincial funding to fuel Anahim Lake Airport runway upgrade

The recovery grant is one of 38 announced to support jobs in rural communities

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry updates B.C.’s COVID-19 situation at the B.C. legislature. (B.C. government)
B.C. reports 10 additional deaths, 395 new COVID-19 cases

The majority of new coronavirus infections were in the Fraser Health region

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

A new survey has found that virtual visits are British Columbian’s preferred way to see the doctor amid the COVID-19 pandemic. (Unsplash)
Majority of British Columbians now prefer routine virtual doctor’s visits: study

More than 82% feel virtual health options reduce wait times, 64% think they lead to better health

Captain and Maria, a pair of big and affectionate akbash dogs, must be adopted together because they are so closely bonded. (SPCA image)
Shuswap SPCA seeks forever home for inseparable Akbash dogs

A fundraiser to help medical expenses for Captain and Maria earned over 10 times its goal

The missing camper heard a GSAR helicopter, and ran from his tree well waving his arms. File photo
Man trapped on Manning mountain did nearly everything right to survive: SAR

The winter experienced camper was overwhelmed by snow conditions

Cory Mills, Eric Blackmore and A.J. Jensen, all 20, drown in the Sooke River in February 2020. (Contributed photos)
Coroner confirms ‘puddle jumping’ in 2020 drowning deaths of 3 B.C. men

Cory Mills, Eric Blackmore and A.J. Jensen pulled into raging river driving through nearby flooding

Castlegar doctor Megan Taylor contracted COVID-19 in November. This photo was taken before the pandemic. Photo: Submitted
Kootenay doctor shares experience contracting COVID-19

Castlegar doctor shares her COVID experience

Ashley Paxman, 29, is in the ICU after being struck by a vehicle along Highway 97 Feb. 18, 2021. She remains in critical condition. (GoFundMe)
Okanagan woman in ICU with broken bones in face after being struck by car

She remains in serious condition following Feb. 18 incident

Vancouver International Women in Film Festival kicks off March 5.
Women in Film Festival features two B.C. filmmakers

The 16th annual festival kicks off March 5, 2021

Most Read